Emmys 2013: Let’s try to guess who will win!

Tomorrow is simultaneously the worst and best day for anyone who is a fan of television. You’ve got the penultimate episode ever of Breaking Bad broadcasting at the same time as the 2013 Primetime Emmy Awards. How could you ever choose? (Well, thankfully to DVRs, you don’t have to. But still.) And since the Emmys are kind of live TV Lovers’ Christmas, it’s only appropriate that we treat ourselves to some prediction indulgence. Let’s start with the comedy series categories.

Comedy Series
30 Rock
The Big Bang Theory
Girls
Louie
Modern Family
Veep

Winner: Modern Family. There just doesn’t seem to be any less buzz in the Academy realm for Modern Family. I think it’s going to pull off another straight win.
But Maybe: 30 Rock. The Academy may be feeling nostalgic about one of the contemporary classics leaving the airwaves. Then again, it left more than half a year ago, and sometimes they seem quite forgetful.
Should Win: 30 Rock. Yes, you were about as tired about 30 Rock winning as you are about Modern Family currently winning, but 30 Rock had a nearly flawless final season in an age where most finals seasons aren’t all that great. They raced to that finish line.
Snubbed: Parks and Recreation.

Lead Actor in a Comedy Series
Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock
Jason Bateman, Arrested Development
Louis C.K., Louie
Don Cheadle, House of Lies
Matt LeBlanc, Episodes
Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory

Winner: Louis C.K. There is a lot of buzz surrounding Louis C.K. at the moment. He has a record number of nominations and won at the Creative Arts Emmys a week ago. They can’t give it to him for Louie just yet, but they may be willing to honor him with an acting nom, even after another late wave of buzz from his Woody Allen movie role.
But Maybe: Alec Baldwin or Jim Parsons. If The Academy is over Don Cheadle’s television debut, they’re going to go with ol’ faithfuls.
Should Win: Louis C.K.
Snubbed: Jake Johnson, New Girl.

Lead Actress in a Comedy Series
Laura Dern, Enlightened
Lena Dunham, Girls
Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie
Tina Fey, 30 Rock
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep
Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation

Winner: Julia Louis-Dreyfus. You can’t mess with the JLD. She did a phenomenal job this season on Veep and she will win come tomorrow.
But Maybe: Tina Fey. As I said, the 30 Rock nostalgia can hit voters hard and Fey was really good in her final season, too. Plus, Fey did beat JLD in the past. Then again, that was for Old Christine. But still.
Should Win: Amy Poehler. Mark my words: Poehler will construct the funniest bit tomorrow at the Emmys during this category, and we will continue to ponder why she hasn’t gotten the statuette for the acting category. She should win for the proposal episode alone.
Snubbed: Portia de Rossi, Arrested Development.

Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series
Adam Driver, Girls
Jesse Tyler Ferguson, Modern Family
Ed O’Neil, Modern Family
Ty Burrell, Modern Family
Bill Hader, Saturday Night Live
Tony Hale, Veep

Winner: Ty Burrell. I know many are predicting a win for Ed O’Neil, but I’m going to say that his co-stars will outshine him again.
But Maybe: Ed O’Neil. Because he’s kind of due for one for a few decades now.
Should Win: Adam Driver. I look at this list and this is what runs through my mind: I quit Modern Family years ago; Bill Hader is absolutely fantastic on Saturday Night Live and it’s a shame he didn’t win last year; and Tony Hale is just as talented and makes me laugh just as frequently. But there’s no one on this list that constructed such a dark presence while also being so comedically gifted. Season two of Girls was tough to watch at times, but in the best possible way.
Snubbed: Nick Offerman.

Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series
Jane Krakowski, 30 Rock
Jane Lynch, Glee
Sofîa Vergara, Modern Family
Julie Bowen, Modern Family
Merritt Wever, Nurse Jackie
Mayim Bialik, The Big Bang Theory
Anna Chlumsky, Veep

Winner: Julie Bowen. She just will.
But Maybe: Sofía Vergara.
Should Win: Jane Krakowski. I’m not going to go into my diatribe again, but Krakowski just really freakin’ deserves it. After seven years, nothing? Nothing? Please just please!
Snubbed: Jessica Walter, Arrested Development.

Directing Winner: “New Year’s Eve,” Louie. As I said, I think this will be Louis C.K.’s year at the Emmys. It should probably be “On All Fours,” Girls.
Writing Winner: “Daddy’s Girlfriend,” Louie. Definitely.

Drama Series
Breaking Bad
Downton Abbey
Game of Thrones
Homeland
House of Cards
Mad Men

Winner: Breaking Bad. I’m calling it! I’m calling it! I’m sure plenty of people are calling it, too, but still. Breaking Bad has yet to win in this category — even though it greatly deserves it — and this might be its year. The general audience buzz for Breaking Bad has never been bigger, and even though it had a wobbly first-half (tonally, in my opinion), it wasn’t as wobbly as Homeland or Mad Men this season.
But Maybe: Homeland. I can’t really gauge the buzz, but it could still be going strong for Homeland.
Should Win: Breaking Bad. As it also should at the 2014 Emmys. There’s just no way any drama will beat its second half creatively.
Snubbed: The Americans. Quite honestly, a couple of these series should have taken a back seat to The Americans during this Emmy year.

Lead Actor in a Drama Series
Hugh Bonneville, Downton Abbey
Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad
Jeff Daniels, The Newsroom
Jon Hamm, Mad Men
Damian Lewis, Homeland
Kevin Spacey, House of Cards

Winner: Damian Lewis. Though Homeland had a creative turbulence last season, the actors were on point as per usual.
But Maybe: Kevin Spacey. They love to award movie stars when they enter the television realm to validate TV as a true space for art to be created even though it doesn’t need to be validated at all.
Should Win: Bryan Cranston.
Snubbed: Matthew Rhys, The Americans. In my opinion, Rhys was a force to be reckoned with during the first season. I just believed him the most out of that show; he has a great natural acting style that I think will forever be overlooked. And Hugh Dancy, Hannibal.

Lead Actress in a Drama Series
Connie Britton, Nashville
Claire Danes, Homeland
Michelle Dockery, Downton Abbey
Vera Farmiga, Bates Motel
Elisabeth Moss, Mad Men
Kerry Washington, Scandal
Robin Wright, House of Cards

Winner: Claire Danes. This is still Danes’ category to lose.
But Maybe: Kerry Washington. Scandal is hot hot hot right now, and it’s thanks in no small part to its leading lady. The Academy might also be looking to pat itself on the back because if Washington wins the category, it will be record-breaking; she could be the first black actor to win. (And also maybe, and this is a huge maybe, Vera Farmiga.)
Should Win: Claire Danes. It’s easy to forget what happened on Homeland during its second season, as it’s also easy to shoo it away because of its creative inconsistencies, but Danes had very powerful scenes and proved to us just how talented she is. Not that she needed to.
Snubbed: Tatiana Maslany, Orphan Black (who should have won).

Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
Jonathan Banks, Breaking Bad
Bobby Cannavale, Boardwalk Empire
Jim Carter, Downton Abbey
Peter Dinkalge, Game Of Thrones
Mandy Patinkin, Homeland
Aaron Paul, Breaking Bad

Winner: Aaron Paul, Breaking Bad. I think the Academy is going to go with what they’re familiar.
But Maybe: Mandy Patinkin.
Should Win: Mandy Patinkin. “You’re the smartest and the dumbest f—king person I’ve ever known.” Once again, case closed.
Snubbed: Corey Stoll, House of Cards.

Supporting Actress in a Drama Series
Morena Baccarin, Homeland
Christine Baranksi, The Good Wife
Emilia Clarke, Game Of Thrones
Anna Gunn, Breaking Bad
Christina Hendricks, Mad Men
Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey

Winner: Maggie Smith because she’s Maggie Smith and she won’t even show up tomorrow.
But Maybe: Anna Gunn. If the Academy finally realizes it has robbed Gunn of a statuette for so long now, they will make the right choice.
Should Win: Anna Gunn. There’s no one on this list that delivered a line as well as Gunn did with, “For the cancer to come back.” She seriously deserves it in this category and it won’t be the biggest blind side if she wins tomorrow.
Snubbed: Abigail Spencer, Rectify. I wouldn’t say that Spencer did much on Rectify, but she certainly helped the mood and developed an incredibly believable character, which helped me push her past Rose Byrne for this list.

Directing Winner: “Pilot,” House of Cards. For the same validation reason, they might award an Emmy to David Fincher.
Writing Winner: “Q & A,” Homeland. That was just a really impressively written episode.

And that’s about it. I suppose we’ll see what exactly happens tomorrow. And I can be completely off. (Hopefully I am so that more should-wins do win!) Now who do you think will win tomorrow?