When One Tree Hill was picked up for a seventh season, even though stars Chad Michael Murray and Hilary Burton had already publicly stated that they would not sign on for new contracts, many thought the show was dead in the water. Yet, despite this negative outlook, One Tree Hill is still thriving and is about to start its ninth season next month. Is there some possible way that, given a similar situation, Gossip Girl would also be able to not only survive, but create a show that would encourage viewers to continue watching despite the loss of major key characters?

Like most television series, the cast of Gossip Girl is signed through six seasons. And though the show hasn’t yet been renewed for that sixth season, at the 100th episode party the president of Warner Bros. Television said that he hoped and expected the show to continue for a sixth season…and beyond.

A sixth season seems manageable, but beyond that? Could the show really go on without some of its major stars? Leighton Meester, Penn Badgley, and Ed Westwick have all already expressed some desire to move on once their contracts are up. And Blake Lively’s ever increasing moves into film have shown her own desire to be off the show as well.

Let’s, for argument’s sake, pretend that Blake would actually be happy to sign on for another season after the sixth (simply since she hasn’t explicitly said otherwise, though clearly this is a farfetched idea), and only the three mentioned above left the show. That would leave only Serena, Nate, and Ivy (and, of course, Lily and Rufus, who would obviously be happy to renew their contracts). Could Gossip Girl pull a ‘One Tree Hill’ and be moderately successful with only those three characters returning?

Like One Tree Hill — which returned with some much-loved, original characters like Brooke, Hailey, and Nathan — Gossip Girl could bring back both Serena and Nate, who have been established as key parts of the series since the pilot. But would they be enough to carry the show? Even though they are a part of the original core five, Serena and Nate arguably don’t have the sort of dedicated, hardcore following that the other three original characters do. How many viewers would want to tune in strictly to see Serena and Nate?

Another obstacle Gossip Girl would face is the introduction of new characters. When One Tree Hill lost Lucas and Peyton they brought in a cast of new characters that people were interested in and related to. In the past, Gossip Girl hasn’t really been able to do that successfully. Most of the guest stars they attempt to bring in are unwelcome and not liked (examples would include Hilary Duff, Raina, the Prince, and the worst of them all: Vanessa). Ivy, of course, has somewhat broken this mold, but the writers clearly don’t have the best record. Could they introduce new characters that would keep viewers tuning in?

Personally, I don’t think the show stands a chance. If it loses Blair, Chuck, and Dan (and most likely Serena, if we are being realistic), there is no way Gossip Girl could possibly continue. The continued ‘success’ of One Tree Hill really is a once in a blue moon sort of occurrence that is most likely never going to be reproduced, especially not by Gossip Girl.